Minor:
I am definitely looking forward to the holidays, and some time off with the family. I am one of the few left with a job in fiber optics, and it is one (of the even fewer) that keeps me busy 12+ hours a day. Thus the late hours of my posts.
I have every indication that next year could be better than last, maybe as much as 30% better. The main challenge will be tough competition between two cash bleeding ex-giants: JDSU and BKHM.
One or both may be tempted to drop prices to get market share, and that could be very bloody. If they drop prices low enough, it could result in a worse year than last. I wish they both would just drop this MSA nonsense and compete on unique technical and performance issues. Afterall, none of the remaining customers is in position to dictate anymore. I believe inventories are near zero.
In my opinion, the next big thing will be WiFi, but I am at a loss as how best to invest, other than an index, like YLS. After a period of wireless expansion, I think it will move over to fiber again...maybe 2005. There may be a small play in cable, with Moto and SA being the favorites, but I have more than once been underwhelmed with the business intelligence of cable MSO's.
In the mean time, incoming tides float all boats (at least those without too many holes in their hull). I expect quarterly tides, roughly. Ride the tide.
-Own |
