J.T. ... as you are well aware, my knowledge and experience with TA is a small fraction of yours ... for me, that is a given ...
... however, you keep referring to 1974 as a reference point, which was towards the end of a perfectly awful recession ... today, in late 2002, although the technical conditions you are looking at may lead you to bullish conclusions, the fundamentals today are not at all like 1974 ... the world and the U.S. is in much worse shape now economically and geopolitically , even though to date, all we have had since early 2000 is a severe stock market adjustment accompanied by artificially low interest rates, a minor recession and moderate unemployment ...
... in 1974, our terrible experience in Viet Nam had just ended, Nixon had resigned and there was hope and promise of a new tomorrow ...
... economically, late 2002 has much more in common with 1930 or 1931 ... and by early February, we will have begun a military campaign in the Middle East that probably offers us nothing but trouble and regret long term ...
... if this is the beginning of a new bull market, I will be much amazed and totally wrong in my own analysis ...
... perhaps your big bull call continuing into at least mid-2003 will become a reality, and you will make a lot of money and be a legend on SI ...
... my analysis says caution is the best strategy, and that the exact opposite of what you forecast is much more likely for summer, 2003 ... or at least between now and next July or August ...
Ken |
