the thing you'll notice about some investors is that they try to have a margin for safety. they come up with a variety of possible scenarios, and assume the worst one will come true. furthermore, they assume that the stock will be valued at the low end of the valuation spectrum compared to its peers--i.e., low PE, low PSR, etc. the investment thesis for these investors is that the price is low enough today that the investment be profitable even in this worst-case, worst-valuation scenario.
by contrast, some other investors only assume the best case scenario. then they assume that the results will be better than the best case. then they assume that others will assume the best-best case scenario can still be bested, and thus drive up the PE, PSR, etc. even beyond the current insanely high levels. the investment thesis for these investors is to ignore anything other than the best conceivable outcome (unless somebody else can conceive of a better one), and to always assume that investors will give the company a premium PE, PSR, etc. only if these conditions are fulfilled will the investment make money.
which type of investor is likely to succeed over the long run? |
