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Politics : World Affairs Discussion

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To: zonder who wrote (2573)	12/11/2002 1:41:56 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) of 3959

Yes it was known before the bombing that Japan would surrender. No it was not known. Some people where of the opinion that Japan would have surrendered, and they may have been right but it was not certain, and still is not certain unless you count surrendering at some time in the future perhaps after more death and suffering then were caused by the A-bombs. "The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender because of the effective sea blockade and the successful bombing with conventional weapons... All of which killed many more people then the A-bombs and were continuing to kill every week that there was no surender. July 18: Stalin told Truman that he had had a telegram from the Japanese Emperor himself asking for peace. Even if true it would not have guarenteed an actual surrender let alone a timely one. August 10: The Japanese publicly broadcast an offer of surrender. Which was one day after the first atomic bomb, so at most that is an argument against dropping the 2nd bomb. Also there was some effort for conditional surrender and others with some power in Japan who opposed surrender at this time and even afte the 2nd bomb. August 14: The Japanese surrender was accepted. "It would be a mistake to suppose that the fate of Japan was settled by the atomic bomb. Her defeat was certain before the first bomb fell." (UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill.) Quite true. Japan's defeat was inevitable, but how long it would take and how many would have died where far from certain. "Certainly prior to 31 December 1945... Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplated." (US Strategic Bombing Survey, 1946.) 1 - This is opinion not certainty, its hard to be sure of these things. 2 - That was published in 1946. It was not available when the bombing decision was made. 3 -More Japanese may have died from non-nuclear bombing and starvation and other causes by 12/31/1945 then where killed by the A-bombs had the war continuned until that date. Tim

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