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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (26006)12/12/2002 1:31:43 AM
From: Step1  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Jay, we have talked a bit before here on SI, a while back though, think it was on the average age of private cars on J roads. Anyway, i suspect you keep track of what`s happening here through the news so i am not going to go in too much details. You are fully aware that deflation in Japan has been brutal, through a number of channels and methods sometimes self-inflicted, sometimes through outside factors and yet sometimes through bad luck. So pretty much everything has been affected, starting with land prices at first, golf memberships down to clothing and food (mostly due to Chinese imports). I just bought a pair of nice corduroy pants last week and they cost me an unbelievable low price of 498 yen. 5 bucks and some change, don`t even have to use a paper bill for that, loose change will do. Made in China of course. The next big issue this year is a double whammy for the economy though: steep tax revenue shortfalls for all levels of governments (-28% in my prefecture) and across the board pay reductions in public servants` pay (1.5% on average i think). This sets the tone for large union negotiations in the spring, this year the theme will be to stay at 0 loss as opposed to accepting pay cuts. We escaped a 5% pay cut on our pay readjustments last June (equivalent to 5.1 months of pay, so less than two percent in total reductions) but are not likely to be so lucky next ...

So the big picture is that at all levels competition is ever harsher, prices cannot rise, and all you have to do is wait for things to be cheaper leading to more of the same. I find at least the media and the government is a bit more candid after 10+ years of this, at least they know they had a bubble, there was even a TV drama on it about a year ago and the word deflation is heard half a dozen times on tv and in the news.

The same reductions in tax income for government is also reducing a lot (thank God ) of the unneeded spending on public works, to the tune of 10% for state funded projects and 3% for national gov funded projects in my prefecture, so overall, same old, same old report as last one (dont know if i posted it here or somewhere else or maybe it was a pm)

Still, if you have a job, life is sweet, convenient, crime although having gone up , is much lower than anywhere i have lived before and there still seems to be a lot of gravy around.

over and out

step1
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