Imperial Sugar (IPSU) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Imperial Sugar (IPSU)

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To: Patentlawmeister who wrote (41)	12/12/2002 7:27:56 AM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) of 121

Cudawuda, your thoughts are exactly on target I think. Someone is quietly skimming all the bids, eagerly not to move the stock by placing a big blocktrade order. The accumulator is quite shrewd, block orders being the exception rather than the rules. To me, this points to institutions. Recent institutional activity in IPSU seems to confirm this... most obviously one of the "XY CApital" new core holder group of IPSU (Fagan Capital, LoneStar Partners etc.) or one of the new funds into IPSU (DFA etc.) What is the price they are willing to pay ? I can only second guess this of course but this seems to depend largely on the future scenario of the company. This 10K refers to the timeframe until end of September. The Hormel deal won't be included in the balance sheet for their Q1-2003 (which started Oct.) but its effects should be highlighted in the narrative. The Wyoming refinery asset sale took place before Oktober and thus should be included. Also future company strategy and refinancing net effects should be adressed in the management report. The real bummer should follow up in the next 10Q, due end of January, that already is to include the sale of DCB to Hormel. What would an accumulator be willing to pay ? Depends on book value and its "quality". The Hormel sale improved book value quality by an extraordinary factor. If rest of operations becomes profitable then Book value should become the focal point of interest, around $10 now.. If the rest is just EBITDA positive but not yet profitable then the target price will be a fraction, maybe 75% of book value. A "Partially liquidating dividend" may become an option for management to consider in such a case if they continue selling assets <g> or getting large into operating cashflow positive territory.. best rgrds CROSSY

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