Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch Message Board

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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

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To: Softechie who wrote (10331)	12/12/2002 3:54:12 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) of 89467

comment from Stevey Roach on Dollar vs Yen The case for a weaker dollar is especially compelling, in my view. As seen through the lens of the real effective exchange rate, the dollar is more than 30% above its 1995 level, whereas the yen is off about 15% over the same period. In that regard, and in the context of America's massive current-account deficit (an estimated -4.6% of GDP in 2002) and Japan's outsize external surplus (an estimated +3.3% of GDP in 2002), it’s hard to argue on the basis of economic fundamentals that the yen "deserves" to fall more than the dollar. Over the long sweep of economic history, current-account adjustments – from deficit to balance – are invariably accommodated by currency depreciation. On that basis, it’s only a matter of when – not if – the dollar falls. first time I have read exact figures on Japan's surplus 3.3% of GDP when we hear Japanese Foreign Ministers bemoaning their excessive yen valuation, please interpret as political claptrap nonsense surely emanating from nether regions / jim

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