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Gold/Mining/Energy : PAAS : Pan American Silver
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To: Canuck Dave who wrote (276)12/12/2002 10:42:24 PM
From: crm114  Read Replies (2) of 294
 
PAAS owned the Dukat property. The Russian Mafiya muscled in. The dispute was settled when PAAS agreed to reduce its equity holding to 20%, surrendering the other 80% and complete management control to the Mafiya. This was a couple of years ago. You can read all about it in the 10-K. The company wrote off 100% of the Dukat investment, due to uncertainty regarding the enforcability of its surviving 20% interest. The stock took a big hit on the news at the time.

Now the company has a 20% claim, and may or may not receive a return now that operations are restarting. If so, it will be a windfall because it is unexpected, and it will be a return on an investment that has a book value of zero. If not, no surprise.

Some have suggested that new Russian production is bearish for the PoS. My guess is, the Russians aren't dumb and will not actually ramp up production expect in a higher price regime. But that's just a guess, and the Russians have demonstrated in the past that they will do things that appear to us to be suboptimal because they need hard currency for foreign trade.

Now maybe somebody can explain why they are not moving faster to get the Caspian oil out. The mideast is about to blow up, the Russki Empire has gajillions of dollars worth of oil in the Caspian, it's landlocked, and they're not moving on it.
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