I agree with this poll, but the key is that only 14% rise in Dow is expected in 2003. This is consistent with my outlook for '03, where I say we will hit the bottom just before war and see steady but VERY slow gains to follow. But then how does one measure a MOABO? Those who bought like there was no tomorrow during the summer of 1932, had to wait a great deal of time before they saw significant gains. However, when buying below a buck or below 10 bucks, the doubling factor can eventually kick in to turn modest gains into substantial ones. So ultra long-termers would be first on the shopping list . . . but definitely stocks with profits AND growth. Here is the poll:
Rande Is
Poll Shows Stocks Optimism
Friday December 13, 3:27 am ET
By Ruth Pitchford
LONDON (Reuters) - Stock market strategists say equities will rise next year but their optimism is muted by worries about the U.S. campaign against Iraq, according to a Reuters poll.
The poll of 90 strategists in North America, Europe and Asia showed that after three years of diminishing returns, 2003 will bring stock market gains of around 14 percent in the United States and around 25 percent in some Asian markets.
Strategists say that bouts of investor despair this year have left share prices looking cheap, and that cost-cutting and mergers among struggling financial, technology and telecoms companies will boost profits for the corporate survivors.
They are also banking on low official interest rates to nurture recovery in the frail world economy.
But for all stock markets, much depends on whether the United States gets drawn into a lengthy war in Iraq.
"I'm modestly optimistic for next year," said Donald Coxe at Harris Investment Management in New York. "But war with Iraq...is a big unknown. The feeling that the war will be over in four, five days is wrong -- it'll be an ugly war."
This week's survey showed the world's benchmark stock index, the Standard & Poors 500, rallying back over 1,000 from current levels around 900. |
