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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing

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To: Dale Baker who started this subject	12/13/2002 6:18:16 PM
From: Londo	Read Replies (3) of 118717

Ever considered shorting UAL? I figure that with their bonds trading at 14-15 cents on the dollar that their probability of surviving without a significant recapitalization (i.e. one that will completely wipe out their current common stockholders) is fairly poor. I also surmise that this latest increase in price can be attributed to everybody cashing in their short bets - 25M short interest on a company with a 65M share float as of November 8th (when they were still trading at 3.28/share), but I figure that with the latest surge of volume (300M shares over the latest 7 trading days alone!) it would equivalently give an opportunity for those that shorted the stock before those whole mess began to cover, and more importantly, it also gave a chance for all the hedge funds and retail that shorted the stock at a dollar to get their clocks cleaned (and thus induce covering). The stock is quite borrowable. I'd expect it to settle down in the 50 cent range over the next half year or so.

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