Hello ACF Mike, <<Falling product costs = good deflation>>
I agree with you, but in moderation, because while caviar is also good, choking on it is not.
<<"Greenspan inflation" panic ... "Greenspan deflation" crisis>>
... We have both, because Greenspan tried to steer the economy too much, as a car on an icy road, and now we veer left and slide right, in ever increasing angle and speed, rushing to a fate that cannot be good.
<<The US is in the grip of titanic positive economic forces, with an emerging recovery, increasing manufacturing output, huge productivity growth and strong personal income growth>>
... While you may be right, I do not agree. I am guessing that people will be marching on Washington during 2003, shouting "Jobs #1".
<<you say, a mountain of corporate and personal debt. Yes, but the cost of servicing that debt is at historically low levels>>
... and about to rise sharply.
<<our financial markets are deep and liquid and shall remain so barring a collapse in demand, which, as we know, will not happen until 2009 or so and, if we are lucky, perhaps not even then]>>
... The market looks forward, and sees what it sees, coming fast.
<<NAV gain ... could melt like snow in August if you are wrong-footed by coming events>>
This is what worries me, because I do not believe <<the risk of Bust is now emphatically past>>, and in fact think that we have just stepped into no-man land, without a map, with nasties chasing us, and meanies waiting for us.
<<upside>> is almost entirely in difficult-to-logically-comprehend gold, tough-to-grow resource shares, and hard-to-understand China equity. I am afraid of all of them.
The days of simple answers are over.
Chugs, Jay |
