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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (26131)12/14/2002 12:46:55 PM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Message #26131 from Dolinar Janko at Dec 14, 2002 10:52 AM
...right. But the money is so cheap to have, it looks like nobody wants it anymore. Like "Thank you, but thank you, no, I'm bursting".


Yes, usually the inverted yield curve is the best indicator of impending recession and the curve is steep and the right way around now. But it is low.... What would be fascinating is the same chart setup for Japan for the last two decades...

And Bernanke hinted he would depress it further on the long end.

That would be the trigger for the next recession if they try to fight deflation that way and then trigger an inflationary boom (wave B in this ongoing bear market) and then up short-term interest rates. Pretty much a repeat of 1979-82.

David
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