Thank you, Jerry. What you say is, as always, straight and very much to the point. Honored to be your friend, man, – and your student.
Anatole.
PS: For millennia, there is a continuing argument going on between Materialistic and Idealistic philosophers about what came first – Matter, or the Idea.
Most modern economic theories are materialistic: Economic expansions will come first, and improve the social mood and cause all kinds of good things. Economic contractions will have the opposite effect.
Elliotticians belong to the tiny minority who see things the other way around, namely, that the changes in public mood come first. An economic expansion will be CAUSED by an “expansion” in the public mood.
President Reagan is credited with bringing us a positive, optimistic message back in the early 80’s; it is said that he “restored America’s confidence”. What followed, of course, was an expansion, which lasted until the early ‘2000. (The expansion ended with a blow off bubble, but that’s another story).
An Elliottician – “socionomist” would say that after a decade and a half long period of malaise (or ‘correction’), the public was READY to elect an optimist like Reagan. At that point our 'mood' had already ‘bottomed’, and we were prepared to hear a message about restoring confidence and optimism.
The same thing will happen again... but it's not going to be soon. |
