Food for thought?
Message 18338380
Let's play What-If.
Venezuela's oil supplies to the U.S. have become extremely unreliable given the current crisis there, this coupled with the fact that the U.S. is heavily dependent on Venezuela's oil, a nice thing to have especially since America is on the brink of war with Iraq.
newsday.com
ott.doe.gov
Seems like the Bush Administration has made a serious tactical error by frustrating Venezuelian leaders and siding with opposition leaders wanting to take over the country away from the democratically-elected government (have we seen this before under Reagan?).
ipsnews.net
The U.S. already has committed most of what it'll need militarily in order to wage war on Iraq, and the military is primarily stationed (probably on TDY, temporary duty status) in Kuwait, Qatar, Turkey and on ships in the Persian Gulf.
If the U.S. begins a war effort without the support of the United Nations Security Council, they'll not have Turkey's support since Turkey is on record of supporting only a war that is UN-supported. Thus, uncertainty to the north. Meanwhile, the Saudis are getting more and more cozy with Iraq and are on record as not wanting a war. Uncertainty to the south.
So in the world of What-If, let's say the U.S. moves the war forward. The action influences the Saudis to cut off supplying the U.S. with oil, this at the same time Venezuela oil supplies to the U.S. have become unreliable.
Could the old 60's tune "Suppose they gave a war and nobody came" turn into "Suppose they gave a war and there was no oil to fight it?"
There are numerous examples of war stretches into Russia where the supply chain dwindled for the invading force. Could a similar fate happen for an American military invading into the heart of the Middle East? Would America and its few allies have to seize Iraq and propogate a military occupation in order to maintain an adequate supply of oil for U.S. interests? And how easy would could it be to do that with a resistant Iraqi population, and with resistant populations in nearby nations?
Of course, there's another question: What would be the domestic impact here in America if the war moves forward with fewer allies than America anticipated it would have when it began sounding the war horn? |
