-- IMM speculators buy euros amid steep rally - CFTC --
By Kyle Peterson
CHICAGO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Speculators in IMM euro futures
renewed a buying spree from Dec. 4 to Dec. 10, a period of
extensive gains for the euro, data released on Friday showed.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of
Traders report on speculative positioning is used by many
analysts as a reverse indicator of future market direction.
Speculators generally comprise trend followers seeking to pick
a precise top or bottom in the market.
Extreme net long speculative positions, for example, often
presage a decline in the currency, especially if that position
conflicts with those held by the more influential players.
The December futures contract expires on Dec. 16, but the
March contract assumed lead month status on Dec. 9.
Speculators in March euros grew a net long position to
28,064 contracts, its highest in two weeks, from 22,876
contracts reported in the previous week. Analysts said that,
while the net long position is approaching extreme levels,
large net long positions have not always been a good signal for
a subsequent declines in the euro.
"The contrarian properties many people look at doesn't
really hold," said David Mozina, director of fixed income and
foreign exchange research at Bank of America. "We're not using
it as a indication that the recent euro gains on momentum will
end any time soon."
He noted, for example, that euro speculators achieved a
record net long position of 35,433 contracts in the first week
in May, a full two months before the euro saw its summer peak.
March euros rose steadily during the CFTC's reporting
period from a close of $0.9954 on Dec. 4 to a close of $1.0051
on Dec. 10. The contract extended gains to reach a new contract
high of $1.0158 on Friday.
Speculators in March British pound futures followed suit,
extending a net long position to 3,542 contracts from 740
contracts in the previous week. Speculators have held a net
long position since mid-October, but had been reducing it for
three consecutive weeks as the contract endured a short down
trend in November.
March sterling futures saw sharp gains during the reporting
period from a close of $1.5570 on Dec. 4 to a close of $1.5614
on Dec. 10. The contract shot as high as $1.5794 on Friday.
Speculators in March yen futures extended a net short
position to 12,210 contracts from 9,903 contracts in the
previous reporting period. It was the fourth consecutive
increase in the net short position by yen speculators.
The growing net short was reflected in yen price action as
the contract crumbled from Nov. 8 until Dec. 5. Since then, yen
futures have been on a rapid uptrend.
"It's not an alarming level," Mozina said of the net short
position. "And with price action over the past few days, I
wouldn't be surprised to see chunk of that unwound."
March yen shot higher during the reporting period from a
close of $0.008051 on Dec. 4 to a close of $0.008119 on Dec.
10. The contract kept rising through Friday when it touched a
3-1/2-week high of $0.008343.
((Chicago Derivatives Desk (312)408-8750
chicago.derivatives.newsroom@reuters.com))
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 8,206 9,754
Short 20,416 19,657
Net -12,210 -9,903
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 33,001 26,199
Short 4,937 3,323
Net 28,064 22,876
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 7,079 5,052
Short 3,537 4,312
Net 3,542 740
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 12,617 8,857
Short 3,584 3,549
Net 9,033 5,308
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
Long 18,682 17,276
Short 634
Net 18,682 16,642
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 11,373 13,508
Short
Net 11,373 13,508
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 2,197 4,018
Short 4,595 4,325
Net -2,398 -307
By Kyle Peterson
CHICAGO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Speculators in IMM euro futures
renewed a buying spree from Dec. 4 to Dec. 10, a period of
extensive gains for the euro, data released on Friday showed.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of
Traders report on speculative positioning is used by many
analysts as a reverse indicator of future market direction.
Speculators generally comprise trend followers seeking to pick
a precise top or bottom in the market.
Extreme net long speculative positions, for example, often
presage a decline in the currency, especially if that position
conflicts with those held by the more influential players.
The December futures contract expires on Dec. 16, but the
March contract assumed lead month status on Dec. 9.
Speculators in March euros grew a net long position to
28,064 contracts, its highest in two weeks, from 22,876
contracts reported in the previous week. Analysts said that,
while the net long position is approaching extreme levels,
large net long positions have not always been a good signal for
a subsequent declines in the euro.
"The contrarian properties many people look at doesn't
really hold," said David Mozina, director of fixed income and
foreign exchange research at Bank of America. "We're not using
it as a indication that the recent euro gains on momentum will
end any time soon."
He noted, for example, that euro speculators achieved a
record net long position of 35,433 contracts in the first week
in May, a full two months before the euro saw its summer peak.
March euros rose steadily during the CFTC's reporting
period from a close of $0.9954 on Dec. 4 to a close of $1.0051
on Dec. 10. The contract extended gains to reach a new contract
high of $1.0158 on Friday.
Speculators in March British pound futures followed suit,
extending a net long position to 3,542 contracts from 740
contracts in the previous week. Speculators have held a net
long position since mid-October, but had been reducing it for
three consecutive weeks as the contract endured a short down
trend in November.
March sterling futures saw sharp gains during the reporting
period from a close of $1.5570 on Dec. 4 to a close of $1.5614
on Dec. 10. The contract shot as high as $1.5794 on Friday.
Speculators in March yen futures extended a net short
position to 12,210 contracts from 9,903 contracts in the
previous reporting period. It was the fourth consecutive
increase in the net short position by yen speculators.
The growing net short was reflected in yen price action as
the contract crumbled from Nov. 8 until Dec. 5. Since then, yen
futures have been on a rapid uptrend.
"It's not an alarming level," Mozina said of the net short
position. "And with price action over the past few days, I
wouldn't be surprised to see chunk of that unwound."
March yen shot higher during the reporting period from a
close of $0.008051 on Dec. 4 to a close of $0.008119 on Dec.
10. The contract kept rising through Friday when it touched a
3-1/2-week high of $0.008343.
((Chicago Derivatives Desk (312)408-8750
chicago.derivatives.newsroom@reuters.com))
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 8,206 9,754
Short 20,416 19,657
Net -12,210 -9,903
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 33,001 26,199
Short 4,937 3,323
Net 28,064 22,876
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 7,079 5,052
Short 3,537 4,312
Net 3,542 740
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 12,617 8,857
Short 3,584 3,549
Net 9,033 5,308
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
Long 18,682 17,276
Short 634
Net 18,682 16,642
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 11,373 13,508
Short
Net 11,373 13,508
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
12/10/02 week 12/03/02 week
Long 2,197 4,018
Short 4,595 4,325
Net -2,398 -307
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15-Dec-2002 22:00:03 GMT
Source RTRS - Reuters News |
