Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Night Trader who wrote (26162)	12/15/2002 8:14:15 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Gendell certainly sounds convincing, and of course he is a hedge fund manager. There will be lots of that "psyhcological trading" going on I expect. Some "numbers ho ho" I remember reading this post about a month back.. Message 18198729. Gendell.. Q: Transfer prices? A: Subsidies. If corn doesn't hit a certain price, if soybeans don't hit a certain price, if wheat doesn't hit a certain price, the farmers get a subsidy The U.S. farm bill, is $180B. miami.com USA deficits runs about $25B to $35B per month, say $30B gives $360B per year. theolympian.com So even if commodity prices appreciated enough to where the whole farm bill could be cancelled, there would still be a shortfall. According to this site, only 2% of the workforce work in agriculture. I am not sure what the total "agribiz" employment would come to though. (edit OK it's in first link above 2.6%) usembassy.de I think what is happening to the USA's other businesses is certainly a factor to consider here. That and debt the consumer is riding in the hope things get better. Message 18245626 Property prices have been holding up some of the stocks that were mentioned. This is one of my bookmarked sites. Subject 51347 OK, property prices have held generally, but it will not take much for them to make a significant downdraft IMHO. So, overall I am dubious of any bullish stance on equities, (apart from the usual market jamming) and long gold miners. ...but I'm a J6P, not a hedgefund manager -g-

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