A couple of GS comments on Flumist and Bexxar, firm betting both will be approved, with, in the case of Bexxar, neutral impact (?) on IDPH and Zevalin:
MEDI's Flumist will be reviewed by an FDA Advisory Committee (AC)
tomorrow and the briefing documents should be available today. We
continue to expect 75% probability for a positive AC review. Depending
on the outcome, MEDI shares could trade between $20 and over $30. We
maintain our Outperform rating based on over 10% growth of Synagis/yr,
potential launch of Flumist in 2003 & an emerging pipeline. MEDI are
trading at 27x our 2003 est. of $1.00 vs 25% 3 yr growth. The PEG of
1.1 is below the sector average of 1.3. The risks to our view are
disappointments on Synagis, Flumist & the pipeline. Separately, CRXA
will be reviewed by an AC tomorrow for Bexxar which competes vs IDPH's
Zevalin. The AC will probably find Bexxar data to be marginal but
sufficient for approval. While Bexxar could erode the market share of
Zevalin in 2003, promotion by CRXA's partner, GSK, could expand the
market. Therefore, we view the outcome for Bexxar to be neutral to
IDPH. We maintain our In-Line rtg. for IDPH & Neutral view for biotech.
quid |
