I think, barring Republican goofs on the War, the next election will see them continue to control the House, expand their hold on the Senate,(The Seats coming open are ones the Dems are more vulnerable on,) and re-elect Bush.
I agree that the war is the great imponderable. I expect Bush to target the war such that it helps his reelection prospects. Note, I'm not saying he is going to war to help his reelection; rather, that having decided to go to war, that the timing will, in part, reflect his reelection needs. I don't know whether their analysis will say they should go now and have a year or so to recover or wait and assume that a war raises a president's ratings. I expect you to go ballistic at this analysis. Be my guest. And we can argue it.
I think the evangelicals (my surrogate for the socially constrictive views of the far right) will push very hard on the judicial appointments and I expect the dems to try, mightily, to make hay of that. If the appointments have several anti-abortion, pro gun types, it could benefit the dems a great deal.
As for your version of the black vote argument, I agree, but, if the Lott stuff hangs around, it will be not about getting the black vote but whether the reps have a racist history.
On the prescription drug bit, I've been amazed at how badly the dems have handled it. The rep proposal is hardly a proposal at all; clearly only a place holder to say they have one. If there is a good debate on it, I would hope the dems can get the details out to the public. But, given that Daschle remains the leader, I will be surprised if they do.
Is what you are calling the "Swing" in favor of single payer? I don't genuinely know. We haven't had a single payer proposal on the table in forever. Certainly the Clinton proposal was not that. But I tend to agree with your argument. The real stories of the ways in which these things are abused permeate the culture. If a proposal dealt with that problem, it might have surprising support.
As for whether Bush wins in 04, it's still too far out for me to tell. The largest variable to me is just how attractive the dem candidate will be. With Gore out of the picture, the possibilities improve. Kerrey, I continue to think, is best on the defense issues but will have to shed the Mass liberal portrait. |
