US Data Week Ahead: CPI, Housing, Production And Trade
16 Dec 11:12
By John McAuley
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--There are a great many economic indicators covering
inflation and activity in November due to be released in the coming week.
Consumer Prices Still Restrained
Economists look for another month of restrained increase in the consumer
price index in November.
Economists' expectations focus on a 0.2% overall increase and a 0.2% rate of
increase in core, nonfood, non-energy prices.
The Labor Department is due to release the CPI report at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330
GMT) on Tuesday.
"Energy prices spiked higher in October, but in November we expect a smaller
increase," said Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Brothers. "At the core,
prices should remain pretty stable," he said about his forecast of 0.1%
increases for both the overall CPI and for the core.
"Look forward to a friendlier consumer price report with some easing in
gasoline prices in November," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of
America Capital. Reaser looks for 0.2% increases in both the overall and core
CPI.
Housing Starts Seen Up In November
Economists look for a modest, partial rebound in November housing starts. The
center of their forecasts is for a 4.8% rise to an annual rate of 1.68 million
in November, but for a 4.0% fall in building permits to an annual rate of 1.700
million.
The Commerce Department is due to release the housing starts report at 8:30
a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Tuesday.
"The latest downward leg in mortgage rates reinvigorated home sales in late
summer and fall, pointing to significant gains in residential construction this
quarter," noted the economists at Banc of America Securities, whose forecast is
for an increase to an annual rate of 1.67 million.
Industrial Production Seen Up First Time Since July
Economists look for an increase in the industrial production index for
November, marking the first increase since July.
The center of economists' estimates calls for a 0.2% increase in November and
for the capacity utilization rate to be unchanged at 75.4%. (The Federal
Reserve released benchmark revisions back to 1972 for industrial production and
the capacity utilization rate on Dec. 5.)
The Fed is due to release the industrial production report at 9:15 a.m. EST
(1415 GMT) on Tuesday.
"U.S. industrial output rose modestly in November, following three months of
cutbacks that appear to have succeeded in forestalling an inventory buildup,"
according to the economists at Goldman Sachs who look for a 0.3% increase in
production and a capacity utilization rate of 75.4%.
Trade Deficit Seen Narrowing In October
Economists look for the trade deficit to have narrowed in October, partly
reflecting the effects of the West Coast port stoppage.
The center of economists' forecasts is a deficit of $36.0 billion in October
compared to $38.0 billion in September.
The Commerce Department is due to release the trade deficit data at 8:30 a.m.
EST (1330 GMT) on Wednesday.
"Prompted by a strike-induced dive in merchandise imports, the combined
deficit on international trade in goods and services likely narrowed sharply to
a nine-month low of $32.0 billion in October," according to the economists at
Salomon Smith Barney.
Other Data
-Initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 14 are expected to slip by
41,000 to 400,000. The Labor Department is due to release the jobless claims
report at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Thursday.
-The Conference Board is due to release the index of leading indicators for
November at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT) on Thursday. Economists look for an
increase of 0.6% in November.
-The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank is due to release its business outlook
survey for December at noon EST (1700 GMT) on Thursday. Economists look for the
index to settle a bit lower at 5.0 in Decemberfrom 6.1 in November.
-The final revision to third quarter gross domestic product growth is due to
be reported at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Friday. Economists expect no
revision to the 4.0% annual growth rate reported a month ago.
-By John McAuley, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4425;
john.mcauley@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-16-02 1112ET |
