S&P Midcap 400 Portfolio (^MID, MDY) Message Board

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Non-Tech : S&P Midcap 400 Portfolio (^MID, MDY)

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To: Londo who started this subject	12/17/2002 1:23:31 AM
From: Londo	of 181

Risk 2% of the portfolio in order for a possible gain of 4%. Trade: Short 60 MDY @ 82.00. Order expires at the end of trading Wednesday if not executed. If order is executed, then place the following bracket order: Cover 60 MDY @ 85.00; Cover 60 MDY @ 76.00. Cancel the other order if one is filled. Contrary to the previous babble in my last message, I'm expecting a violent swing down in the major indicies. Risk parameters: $180 on the downside; $360 on the upside. Rationalization: 1. Currencies - as I speak right now, the Euro and Yen are up another half a percentage point against the US Dollar. This implies that the indicies are going to head down, and this will also invoke some selling in US Treasuries. The cleaner way of playing this would be to short the treasury bonds, but since we don't have access to that in the S&P 400 portfolio, we'll do the next play. 2. Iraq, and the price of oil is headed up, due to all the crap there and in South America. 3. NY State transportation reached a deal. Most of the upside was probably due to that (and short covering). I can't emphasize enough that the markets at the end of the year are thinly traded, and that the markets are usually more prone to be yanked around.

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