re: Telecom, Netcom and cdma WLL
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It may be appropriate to review Luna's conflicting articles on MII and cdma450:
Message 18043138
And a piece on Chinese government plans to sell to private investors the rights to the 450 megahertz wavelength:
Message 18061807
And a piece on China to Build 450 MHz CDMA Networks, China Telecom and China Netcom will provide the services:
Message 18066378
And to recall the cryptic, confusing comments, I believe by Schrock, (modified by IJ) at the last investor's conference regarding China and cdma450...
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That said, Telecom/Netcom and MII are engaged in a dance. Telecom/Netcom want (demand) mobility. That's the future. MII understands this.
Telecom is a force to be reckoned with - even for MII, and Netcom, with powerful political connections of its own, will receive as Telecom receives.
I don't think that MII can shut Telecom out without consideration. In my view, either a 3G license will be forthcoming in 03, or MII will not object to WLL on the carriers' preferred terms. If 3G licenses are inevitable in future, it's rational that MII would approve an efficient technology transition. And it's unlikely that MII is thrilled at carriers throwing money at foreigner UTStarcom.
So I think MII must decide where it wants to bend.
And Mobile and Unicom, who will have a voice, must decide which of two sour options they prefer. They may prefer 3G licenses, in the hope that Telecom and/or Netcom might choose wCDMA... Mobile hoping not to be odd wCDMA man out... and Unicom hoping to keep superior cdma2000 to itself.
However, if Telecom and Netcom begin cdma2000 WLL investments, prospects for any wCDMA in China profoundly diminish. |
