Hey Steve,
I find it hard to envision Gold going up much past the $340-350 level. A spike up could occur but my guess is that it would fade fast unless the catalyst for the spike was a "new" war, Iraq, Venezuela, etc.
If gold were to stay above the $325 level mentioned by PDG in the article PK posted, then I think the gold stocks will have a very, very good year in 2003. Another factor to consider is that with gold being one of the strongest sectors during 2002, those leading sectors from the previous year usually are the dogs during the next year. This hold true more for individual stocks that have given huge percentage runs up.
Overall here in the US, I think 2003 will show a substantial improvement over 2002 but it may not be as strong as some may be assuming currently. At some point in the not too distant future (say 6 to 9 months), the FED will have to start raising rates, especially if we see inflation start to peek over the horizon.
The one major area where I think the White House is making a big mistake is that they have allowed oil + NG prices to remain way too high. Since the leadership comes from oil country, I think they have let their bias get a bit out of control. High energy prices are worse than high taxes for most of this nation, since a substantial amount of this money leaves the country. There's no reason for oil to be above $22/bbl, let alone $30/bbl. This is like adding a 25% tax on everyone and everything. I think our President should be making a point to OPEC and friends that $22 oil is one thing but $28-30 oil is excessive during a period where the global economy is struggling (to say the least).
But hey, what do I know?<g> |
