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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL 220.61

+0.3%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: Hardly B. Solipsist who wrote (17701)	12/19/2002 1:20:25 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) of 19079

I have noticed that for all the crowing that IBM does about Websphere, BEA is hanging in there just fine. Admittedly I have heard of a few high profile customers that dumped BEA for websphere because IBM made them a bundled offer they couldn't refuse (Gap was one site) - but then BEA has plenty of data points where they are holding their own too. And imo BEAS is the strongest company in software too. What this says to me is the race isn't won in the app server biz and Oracle owning the engine has a strong advantage. We know ecommerce (amazon etc.) is blowing out this season with growth rates just like the bubble. So plenty of demand for ecommerce software going forward. I have to say, Oracle's statements and numbers regarding the weak apps revenue is inconsistent with my anecdotal evidence. Of course I am in SV and oracle apps dominate here, just by virtue of the fact that Oracle is close proximity wise. What I am seeing is Oracle CRM taking shops that formerly would have gone Siebel... brcd is an Oracle CRM shop and a new networking startup (high profile) with a management team from rbak who had sebl before chose Oracle ERP+ Oracle CRM this time around. To me, it seems like oracle apps are GAINING share. Again maybe its a local thing. I see a bunch of analysts coming out with "fully valued" calls that are putting a lid on gains in stock today. Actually these "fully valued" and sell calls are getting somewhat tiring. I have a networking stock (cien) and there were a ton of sell calls the day before earnings. This is because the analysts weren't sure about the numbers so they just said sell. The numbers were good and cien rallied 22%. One analyst from soundview had a buy on the stock and stayed by his prediction. Personally I don't want trading advice from analysts which is what all these constant switching of recs really are. They flip around so much they are useless. You can't even use the old -buy when the analysts say sell- indicator anymore because they switch from buy to sell twice in a 2 week period. Lizzie

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