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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: hmbsandman who wrote (15412)	12/19/2002 2:19:19 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) of 57684

well if you ask me this is a choppy/basing period and the mkt goes nowhere until we get this war issue resolved. I agree with you about broadband as a growth business and in software we have the e-commerce app server side. I guess to play those 2 growth areas you'd be looking at some networking players like cien/jnpr and then chips for those brcm,pmcs etc. and for ecommerce software BEAS. It reminds me a little of the early 90s, after oracle crashed to 4 it spiked down and rose to 10-12 area. Larry had lost all his wealth and was worth a pittance 200mm. Orcl then sat at this 10-12 area for 2 years, 91-92. Then in 93 the climb began. So the point is this basing after a crash takes years based on my experience with oracle. Oracle was not particularly cheap at the 10-12 range, it was never an easy stock to buy because growth had subsided. The key in the early 90s was to buy the "next generation" of companies which then included orcl,cisco etc. and not stick with the old guard heavyweights like IBM. The problem is this downturn is much more severe and the big guys like orcl,csco have gained share and are actually cheaper than the little stocks on a lot of metrics. So it could be different this time, big companies vs. small. The opportunity with the internet is larger and that may require a larger company infrastructure to realize the gains. My opinion is the bottom is probably in on many of the stocks I want to own, if not the entire market. It is interesting that people forget the sentiment when we had the last low in October. Back then there were fears of an impending crash/capitulation, a double dip and other scary things. I think all that is gone now. We are seeing improving revs and deal flow now, off a very low base, true but at least nothing is declining anymore that isn't seasonal. This is hard numbers I'm talking about, not CEO expectations. Personally I think buy and hold is all you can do here. Or trading swings of one stock. This mkt is going to bore people to death for a while. Lizzie

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