Hi all; MSNBC article on inevitability of war with Iraq:
Is a War Inevitable? Maybe Not
Two alternative scenarios could see Bush disarm Saddam without fighting him. And they're more credible than it would seem
Stan Crock, BusinessWeek Online, December 19, 2002
When Iraq released its 12,000-page disclosure statement, you could almost hear a sigh of relief from the Bush camp. Strongman Saddam Hussein did just what the President's foreign-policy team thought he would — he failed to answer lingering questions about his weapons of mass destruction programs.
The White House appears ready to declare that Iraq has not complied with the U.N. resolution requiring it to report all its biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons, bringing the two countries one step closer to the brink of war.
But as U.N. weapons inspectors comb through suspected arms sites in Iraq looking for evidence of duplicity, the question remains: Is war inevitable? Surprisingly, the evidence to date still supports three quite plausible scenarios — two of which don't involve a full-scale conflict.
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NEW GOAL? At the other end of the spectrum is this scenario, which even some Republicans believe is credible: The U.S. decides not to intervene militarily because of political considerations.
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LOSE FOR WINNING. Another factor to consider: Bush's hiring of a new economic team shows that he's focusing more on the economy. ...
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THE NEW CONTAINMENT. The final scenario ends up in roughly the same place — but for a different reason. It assumes that the weapons inspectors are reasonably successful.
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WHO KNOWS? This is what intrigues me about the last scenario: I attend a lunch once a month with some academics, think-tank specialists, an occasional Administration official, and some lobbyists. A couple of months ago we took a vote on whether the U.S. would be involved militarily in Iraq within six months. The vote was a unanimous yes. And the six months aren't up yet.
However, the group invariably has been wrong on such votes all year long — just as the conventional wisdom often is wrong. Right now, conventional wisdom says war is inevitable. Maybe, just maybe, it's not.
famulus.msnbc.com
-- Carl
P.S. The "New Containment" is what I've been expecting. |
