exp, we CLOSED below the 50SMA on the COMP. That's huge!
Look at your chart last January when that happened and the 50SMA was acting similarly:
stockcharts.com[g,a]daclynay[d20011119,20021219][pd20,2!b10!b20!b50!f][iLi10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Lb14]&pref=G
We dropped below the lower BB, then rose up to touch the 50SMA before dropping again to a much lower level.
In April-August 2001 we closed above the 50SMA for only 2-days after we closed below it in mid-June, and the result was similar.
stockcharts.com[g,a]daclynay[d20010404,20010819][pd20,2!b10!b20!b50!f][iLi10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Lb14]&pref=G
If you look at the 2002 chart, you'll notice between mid-January and mid-August there were only 2-days we closed above the 50SMA after the initial close below.
If you include the 6-days in August we were over the 50SMA, that's a total of 8-days over the 50SMA over a period of 10-months after the initial close below.
That's something to think about as people look for the Santa rally. The daily charts may look like they're at bottom, but the weekly charts still have a ways to go, and the monthly charts are just starting to turn down again.
Amongst other signals we've had recently, this one is also huge.
Look what happened in Sept. 2000 when we closed below the 50SMA:
stockcharts.com[g,a]daclynay[d20000504,20010219][pd20,2!b10!b20!b50!f][iLi10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Lb14]&pref=G
From looking at this tonight, I have a couple of observations - watch for a drop to slightly below the lower BB on the COMP, and watch for a rise to test the 50SMA, and then watch for the bottom to possibly fall out over the next 3-months.
That has been the pattern, and we've done well following patterns. |
