Ka-Ching'd the HUI stops @ 140... back to core position.
...I may be wrong, I may be right(just hope than when I'm wrong - it's for selling a bit too early on the rallies) but the run from 105/110 back thru 140 for me is now in the Ca$h Regi$ter - some nice 30-50% pops in individual stocks and I can't pass that up right here in this environment....given that the Bulls still have BOTH - the willingness and the Cash to whack Gold and rally the broad market here again soon once we start rolling in Iraq.
Today's fall from 140 grace...felt like lock in time. If we pause & turn and run thru 150... so be it. I don't think this move was built on ANY significant new LONGTERM move to gold from the Institutional side... just TEMPORARY short-term hedges on what's happening in Argentina and a pre-Iraq "HEDGE" on the unthinkable, but possible responses from Saddam.
This was NOT a new signifcant move from new TRUE BELIEVERS being brought into the fold... but, that will occur early next year for all the "right" reasons imho.
That's why I'm banking profits on this run.
The "Big One's" coming,,, but this isn't it imho.
After selling into the May run for goldstocks; I slowly built back up from a core 30% portfolio weighted position; back to 50%ish+ on the July & Oct pullbacks... gotta take some profits here and I'm now back down to a core 30% position once again with sell stops set for half to 3/4's of that in the mid HUI 120's fwiw ( I aint riding anything back under HUI 120 here fwiw... I'll buy back on strength ONLY, if I get stopped out on the balance of my Gold holdigs @ 125-7ish.
I'm sitting in 60% Cash and think we'll range trade in Gold/Pm's here for a while. The DOW's not high enough to add shorts and Gold's aren't low enough, or fundamentally energized enough "yet" to add on strenth.
So I'm hoping to get some re-entry opps in Gold once again, off of what I expect to be a pullback in Energy/PM's once Argentina settles and most significantly, when we starting dropping bombs & rolling tanks in Iraq; where I'm confident that there will be a Gulf-War Deja VuII - "Feel Good" Rally and corresponding pullback in defensive & Gold/PM stocks ... and that's where I'll wait to re-load once again.
That may be the setup for the next SIGNIFICANT up move to new highs in both the POG and the HUI/Gold stocks ($375-385 POG and 175-185 HUI in my estimate)... as I think we'll have back & filled and gone thru the distribution necessary here of those who entered Gold/PM stocks as only a temporary short-term hedge to War in Iraq and a potential terrorist response from Saddam & Al Quaida ... to yet again, within the firm hands of those who see gold moving continually higher on the fundamental longterm weakness in the US Dollar, the ballooning account deficit and the underlying potential of a derivatives meltdown and continued debt crisis.
I think come Q1,2,3 next year when we will STILL have no US Corporate Earnings, or Cap Ex spending recovery in sight... that we'll FINALLY see true capitulation and accelerate into a new lower and much cleaner valuation multiple/metric used in valuing the still grossly over-valued broad market - which will take us on that continued when, not if... journey for the DOW, down to 5,000ish.
PS:
I love the positioning of Bill Frist here as Trent Lott's replacment... which will also position him to step in as V.P. on Cheney's expected if not needed, retirement at the end of Bush's 1st term and will establish a new Republican "Dream Team" for Re-Election with Frist posied the become THE Republican Presidential Candidate for 2008 imho... and he's a helluva choice... a solid, brilliant man. This guy could do for Republican politics what Kennedy did for the Demo's in the 1960's...bring in young people and a new honor to public service.
Here's my loose, forward looking WAG's:
2003: $380-435 GOLD / DOW 6750 - S&P 675
2004: $450-$500 Gold / DOW 5000 - S&P 500
Good Luck all & Happy Holiday's... I'll probably go back to the "Down Scope" mode during the trading range I expect to see over the next couple months untill we clearly establish a foothold in Iraq... if I'm wrong and something rocks the Gold world... I'll just have to ride with 30%, or what ever I have left if further downside stops get triggered and live with the memories of that sweet sound of the Cash Register for having already been rung. |
