Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 256.41

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Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4546)	12/20/2002 1:15:39 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) of 25522

FWIW, if we are making predictions, I will post what I feel to be the most likely scenario. While I do agree that the next upcycle will be noticeably longer than ones from recent memory, I also believe that at some point there will be a rush for equipment as allocation hits the industry once again(ah, for the good ole days!). While we will most likely not ever see another 80% upyear for the sector as we did in 1999, it is highly plausible that at some point a fear of being left out of the party will hit the semiconductor executives at some point, causing many to panic and spend more than they should, thereby "pulling in" the full recovery. This scenario assumes that we have a more robust recovery than we are currently witnessing in the economy. Given the fact that of the current consumer debt overload, this is certainly not a given at this point. Brian

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