Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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Dec 22 3:59 PM EST

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To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (4548)	12/20/2002 3:33:04 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) of 25522

Mitch, Those are bold predictions indeed. The peak of $206 B revenues will never be seen again, in constant dollars. Even at the peak, semiconductor revenues accounted for just 2% of GNP. With the increasing IC content in everything from cars to televisions, I personally would find it difficult to believe that in fact we will not pass the old high during this next cycle. I find it especially difficult to believe that total IC revs will max out at 2% of GNP. , which wave propeled us into the Si-based era we all now enjoy. These new materials will drive quantum computing, optocomputing, biocomputing and more These are still a ways off and even when quantum computing comes to fruition, it will most likely only be used for niche areas of computing such as simulations or the factoring of large numbers for encryption keys. I personally do not envision anything even resembling a quantum computer on the desktop for at least 50 years. FWIW, all predictions should be viewed skeptically at this point, especially since we are at the trough of probably the worst downturn ever. Hence, pessimistic views of growth at this point are probably too pessimistic. JMO Brian

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