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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (7828)	12/20/2002 7:52:01 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95530

Here is an interesting article from msn.com [snip] As rallies go, the one Santa brings to Wall Street in the days between Christmas and New Year’s isn’t stunningly profitable. But it is remarkably predictable -- and just may be bigger than usual this year. During the last five trading days of the old year and the first two trading days of the new, the S&P 500 stock index has climbed in 25 out of 33 years stretching back to 1969, according to Yale Hirsch and his "Stock Trader’s Almanac." [snip] The average gain for those seven trading days is 1.7%. And it has been as much as 7%. But the Santa Claus rally is just one of three end-of-year patterns. The January Effect actually kicks in during December. After underperforming the big-cap issues almost all year, small-company stocks suddenly catch fire in mid-December. Data from Ned Davis Research show that this outperformance has, on average, lasted into mid-February after a brief breather in mid-January. [snip] This is also the time of year when the dogs bark. Investors dump their losers near the end of the year to take a tax loss, handing out even more punishment to already-beaten-up stocks. And that sets them up for a rebound. According to the "Stock Trader’s Almanac," buying NYSE stocks that hit new lows on Dec. 15 and then selling them on Feb. 15 would have resulted in an average annual gain of about 12.5% over the past 28 years. That beats the average annual gain of about 4.5% for all NYSE stocks siliconinvestor.com Don

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