SDRAM, DDR prices stabilize
But major DDR pricing changes could be lurking
By Nam Hyung Kim
Semiconductor Business News
(12/23/02 09:37 a.m. EST)
The following column was provided to SBN by Nam Hyung Kim, a senior analyst with iSuppli Corp., an El Segundo, Calif.-based market research firm.
Following a two-week rally in U.S. spot market SDRAM prices, and a five-week decline in Double Data Rate (DDR) SDRAM tags, pricing for both types of memory is largely unchanged this week.
However, the present pricing situation may be the calm before storm, as a possible influx of DDR supply could send prices falling by the end of the year.
SDRAM prices have risen by 20% since the beginning of December. However, prices last week rose by only 1% for 128-Mbit SDRAM, and by a scant 2% for 256-Mbit SDRAM.
SDRAM prices in late November had fallen below manufacturing costs, spurring conjecture among spot market traders that memory suppliers soon would hike their tags. This speculation helped cause prices to rise on the U.S. spot memory market. Demand-side factors also contributed to the price increases, as aftermarket DRAM module makers stocked up on SDRAM.
However, the SDRAM price surge now appears to have run its course. Meanwhile, DDR SDRAM prices this week are stabilizing after five consecutive weeks of decreases. The cessation of decreases stems from widespread speculation about DDR output.
Suppliers have significantly ramped up DDR production. One of the top memory makers has nearly doubled its 256-Mbit DDR output this quarter. However, some suppliers have begun restricting DDR shipments in order to stabilize prices.
With little OEM demand presently, iSuppli Corp. believes that DDR spot market prices now should be lower than they are presently.
However, the status quo in DDR pricing could represent the calm before the storm. Before holiday vacations begin, traders may dump their inventory of 128-Mbit DDR in order to have a long and relaxed vacation. This could cause DDR prices to fall, particularly for the 128-Mbit density.
While DDR is expected to be the dominant DRAM type in 2003, demand is phasing out for the 128-Mbit density. For PC main memory, 256-Mbit DDR is likely to dominate, with 128-Mbit parts in the 'by 32' configuration enjoying demand only for graphics applications. Because of this, iSuppli does not recommend that buyers build inventory of 128-Mbit DDR parts, despite the expected strong availability and low prices.
Other factors impacting DRAM pricing in the near future include the unusual timing of the Chinese New Year in 2003. The Chinese New Year, a major gift-giving occasion in many Asian nations, will fall on Jan. 31, 2003, two weeks earlier than normal. This could cause DRAM sales and prices to heat up in January, normally a slow month for memory sales, as OEMs ramp up production for the holiday.
With the level of Chinese New Year demand unclear, iSuppli expects the DRAM pricing roller coaster ride to start again in early 2003. |
