Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4550)	12/23/2002 3:54:35 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (1) of 25522

Hi Cary! "Demand" for me means the current and future consumption of transistors. That's growing at a rather low rate at the moment, probably less than 10% year-over-year. Moore's law(and the more robust Law of Accelerating Returns) shows doublng in available transistor capacity about every 18 months (classically), and recently that ability has doubled more rapidly than that. Compounding 10% a year, or even a more robust 25% a year, of demand, doesn't begin to catch up with something that compounds at 100%+ per year. I believe this to be the true macroeconomic driver of the continued rationalization in IC manufacturers that we are experiencing. You know, we had 60% more companies making chips at the end of the last downturn... Mitch

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