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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.85

-4.5%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: fred hayes who wrote (7597)	12/23/2002 4:09:44 PM
From: Biomaven	of 52153

fred, I keep an eye on Alteon. Their capital structure is a mess and they haven't much cash, but if they strike gold with their trial it won't matter. I was tempted to buy some once, but my recollection is that Rick fortunately talked me out of it. Their science is fascinating and they have a huge potential market. But it's very hard to handicap their trial, and it's hard to know when the right time to play them would be. Buying them at this point is like buying an option - you stand a fair chance of losing all your money, but you have some chance at a multi-bagger. Maybe Rick's notion of waiting for the trial results makes sense. You'd miss a double/triple if the trial was successful, but you'd have a lot more information and you'd still likely be in time for a subsequent double/triple. Hard to tell how significant the elevated triglyceride level is. It's a strike against the compound, and would likely make a prospective partner nervous. Peter

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