touche, LurqMan, but politics are at most 10% of gold game
that is my humble opinion
you could ignore WashDC for the next three years, assume a few things regarding policy, watch the weekly news bites on the Iraqi front, again assume endless violence in the Palestinian arena, and PROFIT MIGHTILY FROM GOLD
I set the Federal Reserve apart from WashingtonDC
that might not be technically correct
but I regard the Fed as a NYCity extension of the USGovt
the most important Fed branch is in Manhattan
the largest horde of gold is in that Manhattan branch
sure, if the Iraqi mess mushrooms out of control, gold will lift huge
but if Iraq simply goes away, gold will lift huge
from 1976 to 1980 there was no immediate war conflict that could be pointed to for lifting gold
the four biggest forces behind gold now are:
1. negative real rates on shorterm Treasurys
2. debt collapse and associated profit collapse and stock morass
3. US trade gap and Govt deficits
4. gold takes on life of its own from hedge covering
I dont believe Iraq or MiddleEast is even in the top 4
ignore it, and watch gold rise
take it away, and watch gold rise
Bernanke's policy position addresses absolutely nothing on MidEast or Iraqi tensions
this was the central golden watershed event of 15 years !!!
the press/media continually cites and insists gold is rising from internatl tensions
that is diversionary klapptrapp for the consumption by ignorant masses
Saddam will be the scapegoat for both gold and our stock declines upcoming
dont fall into the trap of believing that naive horseshit
it is less than 10% of the gold force imho
Washington Stupidity?
it is always there, a given, an easy assumption that needs no discussion
we can have self-serving decisions based on stupidity from the left aisle or from the right aisle
who cares?
I find it mindless and valueless, a masturbation of keystrokes
on political forks in road:
choice A: gold wins
choice B: gold wins
choice C: gold wins
define A,B,C and let it go
ALL PATHS LEAD TO A GOLD EXPLOSION
politics are merely polluted flower beds along the paths
I care about the forces pushing on the paths, not the orchestrated adornments to distract along the way
I am gradually concluding that the speed of gold's rise is independent of anything political
this is all economic and monetary, with policymaking now utterly desperate
as Sinclair says "they will toss the dollar overboard to save the economy"
precisely my point since springtime, backed into a corner
/ jim |
