Good morning JW, <<being in HongKong, how do you maintain such a clear perspective on our US economy, its politics, its credit explosion status, its capex events, Fed policy, banking practices, ladidadida etcetera ?>>
Message 14861804
November 22nd, 2000
... and ...
(a) Hong Kong is a rock, full of investors/speculators too big for living on a rock, with a USD pegged currency and USA 1920s style capitalism, plus small government and low taxes;
(b) HK is at the beginning of the feeding chain, before the customers in Europe/America, and before the factories in China;
(c) HK, in its role as above (a) and (b), and its role as the freest adjusting economy in the world, with zero capital control, is in fact the thermometer up the world’s behind, sensing the problems first;
(d) For example, the Internet mania blew up in Hong Kong before it did in US, and stock cap of I-nets went way flat very fast, giving me early warning impending USA DotKaboom Message 12186762
December 4th, 1999
(e) I keep track via the Internet info available to everyone, and I have friends who are money managers in US, London, Tokyo and HK; and about 45% of my clients are American companies.
What happens in the US matters to Hong Kong, and when events starts to go wrong, HK goods and financial markets react, often faster than the mobs do in the USA.
Here is the big difference between HK and USA. When we see trouble coming our way, we try to buy our way out, run away or hide, and if unable to, we tie ourselves to the coconut tree and 'bear' it out. We tend not to march forward in roles and columns, chanting 'V recovery', and hope that we remain standing as the crimson tsunami washes over us. For example, the wealthier folks had cut back on frivolous consumption since 2000 June-ish.
<<I would imagine China is a difficult enough topic to stay current on>>
… I keep track of China by osmosis, whereas I keep track of USA by deliberation, Internet, and yes, SI:0)
<<where did you learn English?>>
… I was born in China. My father was from Trinidad and Tobago, educated in England, lived all over Europe, and had moved to China when he was 53 years of age, and thus only spoke European languages. My mom is a Shanghai girl, educated in missionary school and speaks fluent English without accent. I was educated from 11 years old onward in the USA, leaving the chaos that was the Cultural Revolution on a Trinidad passport, and left the USA after completing MSEE and MBA.
<<Chinese … Destroyers … Chinese interests and exerting the same kind of subtle pressure that American ships have since 1960>>
I think the US will have much to learn about subtle pressure:0) China traditionally has not been a maximally interventionist culture, tending to …
Message 18336255
... and earlier …
oceansonline.com
<<when you do expect China to allow revaluation upward in the Yuan?>>
… after Greenspan/Bernanke is done destroying the US currency:0?
... I think the Yuan will embrace the USD until both go to the bottom, because China's needs are too great at the moment ... so many power stations, dams, roads, harbours, airports, factories, cities, homes, shops, McDonald's, etc remain to be built, and thus so much printing to be done.
I do not know whether both currencies will rise to the top again without resorting to gold backing, but suspect that we have not heard the last of monetary gold, because we are not that lucky to see the demise of a ancient monetary tradition.
I do believe the Yuan will eventually trade at a premium (relative to the current 8.25 Yuan:USD) and 10-15 years is possible, 20 years more than likely, 25 years for 99.98% probability.
More interestingly is the question whether, and if so, when the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy, first in PPP terms, and then in nominal terms.
Chugs, Jay |
