Hi all; Update of Army / Air Force reserve mix:
Air Coast
Date Army Navy Force Marines Guard
------------- ------ ------ ------ ------- -----
Sep 4, 2002 39,357 6,333 26,097 3,789 1,082
Sep 11, 2002 38,195 6,337 24,728 3,778 1,082
Sep 18, 2002 38,195 6,283 23,006 3,790 995
Sep 25, 2002 35,360 6,148 21,421 3,807 944
Oct 2, 2002 34,727 5,968 20,053 3,805 858
Oct 9, 2002 31,324 5,881 18,356 3,697 732
Oct 16, 2002 30,679 5,770 18,356 3,686 606
Oct 23, 2002 30,679 5,615 17,450 3,684 705
Oct 30, 2002 30,702 5,594 17,009 3,718 698
Nov 6, 2002 25,306 5,517 16,087 3,725 701
Nov 13, 2002 25,369 5,559 16,011 3,740 679
Nov 20, 2002 25,375 5,330 15,440 3,797 679
Nov 27, 2002 24,677 5,330 16,544 3,843 679
Dec 4, 2002 24,913 5,118 16,159 3,858 707
Dec 10, 2002 25,368 4,931 15,974 3,825 727
Dec 18, 2002 30,334 4,931 15,673 3,833 759
Dec 24, 2002 29,175 4,269 15,178 3,836 759
Air Force reserves activation continues to drop, which is consistent with my analysis of the figures and DoD announcements. (See #reply-18351731 )
When trying to distinguish between "trash talk", and "war preparation", it is important to look at how previous "war preparation / trash talk" turned out. It is now 20 days since the following article came out in the NY Times:
NY Times, December 5, 2003
In what is likely to be only the first wave of new call-ups, the Pentagon is expected in the next several days to activate as many as 10,000 reservists, mainly military police units, for security duty here and abroad, officials said. They would join the 50,755 reservists now mobilized for the defense of the United States after Sept. 11 and for the war in Afghanistan. #reply-18302792
The actual figures for the total number of activated reserves since those 20 days are as follows:
Dec 4, 2002 50,755 ( 318 )
Dec 10, 2002 50,825 70
Dec 18, 2002 55,530 4,704
Dec 24, 2002 53,217 ( 2,313 )
And even the slight increase in total reserves is fully explained by the hand off of Air Force duties to Army reserves as announced in #reply-18351731 . There probably were about 10,000 reservists activated, but there was also close to the same number deactivated. It is clear that the NY Times did receive early information from the Administration about the activations, but it is also clear that the NY Times did not receive early information about the purpose behind those activations nor did they receive information about the corresponding deactivations.
Since the activations were only being made so that other soldiers could be deactivated, it would have been impossible for the administration source to have been unaware of the deactivations. In other words, they deliberately misled the press.
When a participant in a fight makes constant noises about how they are about to "open up a can of whoop ass", or about to "go get their daddy's gun", or whatever, but their actual behavior fails to match their threats, the undeniable implication is that their threats were only trash talking. When someone has a reputation for trash talking, everything they say about the future should be (and will be) discounted accordingly.
-- Carl |
