Since this is a time for long-term thinking, I'm curious on your long-term take here. All that I see looking over the longer charts is: two fairly impulsive looking legs off the Oct. 10th low interrupted by a corrective wave, and some down that has now overlapped the first wave off the bottom.
Therefore, I don't see a longer-term impulsive up count. Given all the other circumstances (insider selling, lack of corporate buying, weak dollar/foreign selling, sentiment, extreme valuations) I continue to see little chance of even a cyclical bull in progress. However, if we turn and tank hard in the next couple weeks, it will look like we've got 1-2-i-ii-iii going down. Not saying I favor that, but with the oversold of October worked off, it should be difficult to build a forceful upleg. So, I see the potential for longer-term impulsive down counts, but any up remains within the context of a larger corrective upleg.
That said, I'm hoping for some up to lift my hedges. Hopefully this post will launch a serious rally!
BC |
