The Middle class will have the biggest effect on politics in the next few decades, they are the abstainers, the Silent Majority, the Non Voting Majority; Both parties know they have maxed out their constituencies in such a way that they have both bumped into a ceiling.
Each side Rep/Dem have their particular blocks, the voters who will matter into the next cycles are the ones on the bench as abstainers. Clinton was able to win in 92 with only 23.57% of eledgible voters, in this victory we saw the first important statistical shift to Middle class participation, that participation delivered a 6% increase in votes, most of which were cast for the independent candidate.This movement was further subtantiated by the victory of Jesse Ventura against what everyone would say were impossible odds. The defeat of Mondale at the mid term was proof of the sticking power of the movement, and a further message to the dems that their attempts to hold on to their old ways, will not be tolerated.
Election dynamics are much like Eliott waves used in the market forecasting, the blast of Abstainers who voted in 1992 stayed home in the next two elections; this brought the abstainers back to 51.7 % of potential voters in the 2000 election.
Sticking with Elliott projections beginning in 1972 the % of Abstainers shrunk to 45.19% in Clintons first election, the numbers of abstainers went straight back up in the next two cycles meaning that the next waves of participation should begin again to produce fewer abstainers, these voters will become the difference makers for the next decade. The wave cycle looks like a 3-2-5 with the next five cycles being determined by the Abstaining population, this postulates an Independent winning the 4th or 5th election cycle.
Both Parties appear ill prepared for the voting backlash certain to come if political reform of their parties is not undertaken before the completion of the next cycle.
The biggest challenge for the Democrats is;
Their party has been placing bets in the economy by shorting the market trying to destroy wealth, hoping that a negative economy will drive voters to their tent. This will be unmasked for what it is, a desperate attempt to manipulate the middle into believing something that is not true.
The Republicans biggest challenge will be to correct the imbalance between Corporate largess and the real economy small business. This is where the Republicans must improve or they will lose the intiatives that have already been forecasted by the mid term elections.
Any party moves that threaten Americans Liberty will be punished. The Middle wants to live safely, and still considers the National Defense as a prerequiste to their well being. Irresponsible actions; will not be tolerated, as that is equally abhorent to the vast middle.
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