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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Shack who wrote (62307)	12/29/2002 11:43:43 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) of 209892

Shack, follow up to prior post... Business Week has a survey out polling economists on the 10-year. No less than 62 opinions. As of last Friday the 10-year yields 3.8%. The average and median response of the 62 'seers' was for a 4.8% yield by year-end next year. a grand total of 3 of the 62 see yields going lower, with the single lowest prediction at 3.55% (i.e. not taking out the lows, in yields). fwiw, TNX 4.8% would cause a <3.9%> LOSS (on a total return basis) for CY03. that would be just about as bad as the terrible bond bear market in 1994. i wonder if all those individual investors who have poured out of stock funds and into bond funds are prepared for a 4% loss of their capital from their 'safe' bond fund. i wonder if all those moron economists polled by Business Week sat down for a second and wondered if their predictions of massive capital losses in people's recent bond investments was consistent with their predictions for renewed economic growth, a higher stock market, and a lower jobless rate? the bond bull market is soooooo over <g> Cheers

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