RICHARD RUSSELL HATES 2003 OF CORS ONLY IN DA PARSNIPS BORD LMAO
Category: General Interest
From: babba_lou (Lou Alenskas)
To: ALL
Date Posted: December 29, 2002 at 20:48:55
Subject: Richard Russell's projections for 2003
Posted on Zeev's turnips thread:
Richard Russell's projections for 2003:
"It's quite amazing, but despite the lousy action of the stock market, the latest poll figures gathered by Investor's Intelligence
shows bullish advisors at 49.4% vs. bearish advisors at 26.5%. "Hope springs eternal."
"With the year 2002 almost ended, we can see that it's been another losing year in a continuing bear market. The Dow as
of today is down 15.8% for the year. S&P is down 22.5%. Nasdaq is down 29.8%. Wilshire is down 21.22%. The Value Line
is down 27.9%. Companies in the MSCI World Index, a global benchmark, have lost $1.2 trillion of market value for the
year.
"In Europe the Stoxx 50 has lost 33% and the Dow Jones Stoxx has fallen 31%. Germany's DAX index, one of the worst
performers, is down 42% this year. The Nikkei 225 has lost 17% for the year.
"How about China, which is where so many Westerners thought they could reap in the profits? China's index of B shares,
which foreign investors can buy, has dropped 19% For the year. As for South America, Argentina's Merval plunged 48% and
Brazil's Bovespa collapsed by 48%.
"It's a world bear market, and it's shaping as maybe the worst since 1929-32.
"What about next year, the year 2003? What do I know -- it hasn't happened yet.
"But I can guess. My own guess is that next year is going to be an S.O.B. In case you don't know what that means, S.O.B.
stands for son-of-a-bitch. Translated that means that I think 2003 is going to be a very difficult year. (Editor's Note: if 2003 is
also down, it will be the second time in all Wall Street history since there were four straight years of negative returns SINCE
1929-1932).
"Russell, why are you saying that?
"I'm saying it because -
"(1) There is still FAR too much bullishness, considering that this bear market is not even close to being completed.
"(2) This bear market is three years old, and the Dow has not lost as much as half of its bull market gains -- and I'm talking
about the bull market of 1974 (Dow 577) to 2000 (Dow 11722). Half of the bull market's gains would take the Dow back to
6149. We're not there yet, but I think there will get there -- probably next year.
"(3) The market will be down three years in a row. This is a very rare and bearish series. I believe that this series is the
market's way of discounting important deterioration in the economic, social and political fabric of the nation. This
deterioration, I believe, will begin to show in 2003.
"(4) The Greenspan Fed has been a mainstay for bullish hope among investors. I believe that in 2003 Greenspan will be
discredited and doubts will arise regarding the usefulness of the Federal Reserve (criticism of the Fed will increase, and
many will begin to see the Fed as "part of the problem").
"(5) With the bear market deepening, Bush's popularity will plunge and many of his policies will be disparaged.
"(6) Unemployment will increase substantially in 2003, and consumers will become increasingly disillusioned. Debt will
become a crushing problem and the operative phrase will be "With these low rates, where can I get some income?"
"(7) The dollar will continue its decline and the rising price of gold will tell Americans that "something is terribly wrong."
"(8) I think the housing bubble is living on borrowed time.
"What about gold? In the latest week the M-3 money supply was up $8.55 billion. That's just one week worth of bank credit.
A quarter of that one-week increase could buy the entire gold industry.
"I believe the public is either ignorant about gold or oblivious regarding what's happening in gold. The fever hasn't started
yet, but I believe that somewhere ahead we're going to experience "gold fever." |
