Just back from vacation (insert favorite flying or driving joke here) and without much time to look at charts, but I gotta say I picked an okay week not to look at the business news even once. So why am I posting?
Well, totally fwiw, but my favorite cycle -- an 11 week one that's been quite useful since Sept 21, 2001 -- hit this past week. Either the naz isn't gonna top 1392 for at least three weeks, or Friday marked a low for at least three weeks if this cycle continues to be as correct as it's been recently. Also fwiw, but this cycle isn't based on closing values only, but on any values... implying we gap up Monday or at least don't take out Friday's lows if we're going up. Why? I dunno, but you can look at the charts yourself (naz and NDX are the easiest to follow).
Now, if there was one time I could see the cycle getting bumped out of whack, it's this low volume, half days/days off time of year. Still, I gotta play it like it's been.... Anyway, the cycle doesn't say this is a significant turning point (though it often is), but just a trend change for a shorter term (but so far at least 3 weeks). Last time this cycle hit was the week of Oct 10th, btw.
The few charts I've looked at could use another down leg BUT this overlapping, mildly downsloping, wedgy stuff we've been doing actually looks more bullish than bearish to me. Plus add in the HIGHLY scientific fact that the last three days in December are historically up days on the naz, at least, and heck, I'M 50000% LONG!!!!!! OK... I'm flat. But my next trade will be a long, unless we get a hound here with a sharp downward break of the jello.
Off now to read what I've missed... or maybe to watch Sportscenter and go to bed. Yup. The latter wins!
the freep |
