AJ -- as I stumble off to bed, my answer is simply that it's an 11 WEEK cycle, so I don't have specific dates, but rather WEEKS where the cycle hits. The high/low can occur anytime in week 11 AFTER the last cycle hit. So in other words, count 11 weeks after the stick on the week of the Sept 21, 2001 and you have the first weekly stick in December. The high of that week was not surpassed til four weeks later (and the actual rally peak was 5 weeks later). Clearly this cycle doesn't help on all time frames, though it does signal at least a short term trend change. In the past year+, the peak/valley was not surpassed for at least 3 weeks.
For this cycle to continue to work as it has, then, there is no 9 day window for a change in trend -- last week's stick should have either a high or low that is not exceeded for 3 weeks. The way the other turns have "looked" to my eye on the charts, it seems like Friday's low should hold for a few weeks (there, shorts, I just GUARANTEED a crash manana). Again, this is the time of year I could see the cycle failing, but I wouldn't bet big money against it. Also, if you look at the cycle hit at the beginning of March 2002, you'll note only one full week of rally after it, then a long miserable decline... so this cycle is only one tool.
the freep |
