Technical analysis for shorts & longs Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

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Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Lachesis Atropos who wrote (38678)	12/30/2002 2:58:36 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 69854

My stats are little rusty, but I think what he was doing was: For a down trend: 1) calculating the probability of the index reversing after being down 'n' days in a row. 2)calculating the probability of the index reversing after being down 'x' percent 3) The probability of a reversal is probability 1 multiplied by probability 2. Similar calculation for the uptrend. From memory he calculated the percent changes in 1 percent increments for simplicity.

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