it makes me wonder if bears at these levels are capable of seeing any other outcome.
personally, i draw a distinction between analysis and prognosis. on an analysis basis, which is to say fundamentals, the market is still very overpriced and needs to go way down. however, this may not happen anytime soon, and there is no guarantee that somebody heavily short the market will live to tell about it. this is due to the crap-shoot nature of short-term returns, as well as the institutional bias against facing the music in the short term and finding bandaid solutions which cause violent short-term rallies (that inevitably get gobbled up by mesikämmen, "the Ursine One", as he continues his patient work). remember back when that fool greenspan gave a surprise rate cut in late 2000 or early 2001 and the Nas rallied 15% in one day? many bears failing to appreciate this in the late 90s went bankrupt as the market exploded upward.
although i doubt it will explode upward again (say, take out 1500 on the SPX), it is certainly possible. if we go to war and the market tanks, i will probably close all my tech shorts (95% of which have been nicely profitable) and maybe sell some golds, and maybe even buy some total garbage tech in anticipation of a sucker's rally following the inevitable "victory" over our puppet enemy Saddam.
there are certainly a lot of structural forces at work trying to prop up the market--greenspan, all the scumbags on Wall St, all the scumbag CEOs, all the mufu fools playing with OPM and betting on a "war rally", etc.--which should make any bear nervous about being heavily short during a war. |
