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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.21

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Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Tom Pulley who wrote (82608)	12/30/2002 4:17:42 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (1) of 99985

No sign of the January effect at this point. I wonder if we really saw much tax loss selling this year since most people already have tax loss carryovers from 2001 and 2000. We'll know in a couple weeks. Tonight I will start updating the results of my timing model for the year and at yearend will provide the results on a monthly basis as well as annual basis. One of the goals of the model is to beat the market with consistent performance. My definition of consistent performance is for 65-70% of trades to be successful. Ideally the model should outperform the market not only on an annual basis but also in at least 8 of 12 months of the year (67% of months). It will be interesting to look at these statistics for this year. The other key statistic I will calculate is the average gain for winning trades versus the average loss for losing trades. Tom

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