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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Larry S. who wrote (705)12/30/2002 6:40:45 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) of 972
 
Dan, et al,

PMs were mentioned in at least two Barron's columns this week and not very positively; so the bull market in gold should continue. The comments in the Commodities Corner were interesting. First, it was indicated that the Australian government expects the hedge's (hedging by gold producers) influence to wane and the price of gold to fall to an average price of $295 for the year, especially if a rising stock market reduces the metal's appeal as a safe-haven. I don't understand the logic, but then there is a lot I don't understand. Second, Bart Melek, an economist at CIBC, was quoted as seeing $400 gold "if there's a sustained lack of confidence in equities" and the dollar remains weak. It was further noted that he otherwise looks for it to trade within a $320 to $340 range.

The latest update of lease rates that I could find indicated that they were essentially unchanged. I don't read anything into this.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 12/26, the Barron's GMI was at 498.92, up significantly from the previous week's 466.92. With the POG also up significantly at 349.30 (12/27), the ratio was up a little at 1.43.

The ratio a year previously was 1.15.

Cheers and Happy New Year,
Larry
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