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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 691.66

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Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Logain Ablar who wrote (38684)	12/31/2002 2:22:46 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 69866

Tim, BRCD seems to be showing up on quite a few January bounce lists here on SI. People are betting on the fact they are still cash positive despite the erosion of market share. Too many people may be expecting the bounce. CHTR looks to have formed a decent base this month. ESST, KOPN and LAMR doing similar patterns. I personally will wait for the employment report later this week and the first of the tech earnings to come out. MSFT and IBM are now below their 200 day EMA's. I can't see the market getting far without these stocks. GE similarly is in a severe down trend. If we do get a January effect it may be later than most expect. Most funds will probably wait as see what the earnings are like. There is certainly no hurry as bonds did better than stocks last year. I am not sure they will get blamed if they are sitting on cash this year. The scenario I see is that Bush will have to re-inflate the economy this year if he wants a chance at getting re-elected. A bad economy is what did in his father. The replubicans control both house, they don't have any excuses right for not getting their policies through. I think it will take more than a tax cut to get the economy going though. What his new economic team has in mind I don't know. It should take a few months to play out so it would confirm the opinion of most people that the 2'nd half would be the earliest for a re-bound. Shorter term I tend to agree with Suresh, there is very little in the ways of a catalyst to increae earnings. Till the Bush team announces their policies I can't see too many fund managers being optimistic 9 months out. As the market is typcially looking ahead, it takes a little more visibility to get people off the side lines.

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