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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 693.87-0.2%4:00 PM EST
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38694)12/31/2002 9:37:36 AM
From: j g cordes  Read Replies (3) of 69712
 
The practical utility of any probability table is being able to use it. This may seem obvious but its not. Why?

I'd wager most all don't enter into a new position based on using high prob/opportunity identified that way. Instead we tend to find a group of companies, follow them until one or more triggers that magical but usually unidentified criteria that appeals to us.. THEN once in a new position we race around trying to find probability tables, candle patterns, moving averages etc.. to support or otherwise rationalize our positions.

Often the actual buy triggers are subtle, psychological, and anything but rational in a strict technical analysis sense.

Example.. and I rely on all to plug in their experience. I have followed groups of stocks and year over year timing. I note relative strength of one group following like a delayed wave the relative strength of another group.. example semi's selling off often shifts money into biotech and vice versa. I look at a group of fifteen biotechs for one about to turn or resume trend. Like all of us I want the best momentary profit so instead of picking AMGN for a move from 50 to 52, I'll look for a 16 to 20 move in a less reliable pattern.
Or it might be an article I read that morning on the dollar favoring a Euro currency biotech..

The point is, dicipline goes out the window and in the end most trades are emotionally weighted decisions in search of technical rationalization.
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