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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: marginmike who wrote (62470)	12/31/2002 6:30:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 209892

Seems to me there are two things everyone is waiting for. 1) Gold pullback to buy 2) stock rally to short at higher levels. Is it possible neither happens? Why does gold have to pull back? Consider this chart tinyurl.com The last time the 50MA touched the 200MA there was a 3 month rally in the HUI We certainly have gotten a nice bounce everytime the HUI falls to the 200MA. We have gotten one hell of a bounce the last time the 50 hit the 200. Put me in the camp that says a gold correction is likely to be weak. Put me in the camp that says a stock rally is likely to be weak as well. Right now it almost seems like they are sucking the premium out of both puts and calls just as they did in DEC (after a short quick plunge a week ahead of where a max pain correction would begin). With Max pain at 25-26, that kind of weak rally from 24 or even 23 can happen in two days (1/2 on an opening gap up) depending on the start point. Look at MSFT 101K calls at 55 vs 54K puts. No wonder MSFT is doing a slow bleed. At 50 it is 58K to 76K. Fill the gap, weak bounce to 52 then die into expiry. Why not? I should have been paying more attention to this. Look at INTC 122K+ calls vs 41K puts at 20. 71K calls vs 51K puts at 17.5. CSCO 155K calls vs 72K puts at 15. Over 100K calls at 15, 17 1/2, and 20. WOW and they thought bears are pessimistic. This optimism is amazing. Over 100K calls at QQQ 25 26 27 28. Except for a block of QQQ puts at 25, optimism is everywhere. I believes that explains why there was no santa rally. Can we rally in Feb, an month that is usually bad? I guess my favored scenario is down to flat with a possible small rally into Jan expiry. Bad February. March rally. In that scenario there is no reason for much of a gold pullback until March. M

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