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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 684.45

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To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83608)	1/2/2003 12:58:59 AM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Tom ... by next December 31, I see lower values on all the major U.S. equity indexes, a damaged treasury and corporate bond market (much higher interest rates), a U.S. dollar valued around $.70, much higher gold prices and significantly higher U.S. unemployment. We should see a probable secular market bottom in September or October ... and a very slow start towards economic recovery in 2004 ... but not significant enough to prevent one or more moderate Republicans from making a successful challenge against George W Bush in early 2004. Should war in Iraq somehow not happen, I will want to revisit the above ... but war in Iraq will almost surely be the external shock that will tip our economy back into a recession of serious consequence. Ken Wilson Note: I have been correctly bearish on equities since January of 2000, and I do hope to be bullish this time next year.

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